Home Possible Causes Our Team D3 Visualization


Associations of Excess Mortality with Policy and Socioeconomic Variables


Excess Deaths and Strictness of Measures (Stringency Index)

Oxford's COVID-19 Government Response Tracker aims to track and compare worldwide government responses to the coronavirus with a comparable metric. The index collects information on common policy responses and score the stringency of each measure through a comparison to normal times. The scores compount into an overall COVID-19 Government Response Stringency Index.

This composite measure is a simple additive score of the seven indicators, rescaled to 0 to 100. A score of 0 would be policies in normal times and 100 is the highest level of restrictions. This measure is for comparative purposes only and should not be interpreted as a rating of the appropriateness or effectiveness of a country's response. More information about the index can be found here.

How to read the graph: The graph below shows the association between the average level of stringency in state policies since march 2020 and the average weekly excess deaths per 100k. The relationship between the variables observed negative (albeit weakly ash shown by the trendline). The graph shows that states like the Dakotas (ND & SD) had the least stringent policies in the US and some of the highest levels of weekly excess deaths per 100K people. In contrast, Hawaii, Maine and North Carolina had comparatively more stringent policies and lower excess mortality.

*The District of Columbia was excluded from this chart as the city data doesn't compare to the state-level data. A more accurate comparison would be to other cities.

A higher level of stringency in pandemic response policies is weakly associated with lower average weekly excess deaths

Average weekly Excess Deaths vs. Stringency Index (Avg. for 2020)

Source: The Economist & Oxford COVID-19 Government Response Tracker, Visualization: D3


Excess Deaths and Population Density

Since SARS-CoV2 (the virus that causes COVID-19) is an airborne disease, a state with a greater population density (people per squared mile) is more likely to increase excess deaths because crowded spaces increase transmission, hospitals become overcrowded faster. Thus, more urban states are more likely to have a higher level of excess deaths than more rural states. The source of population density data by state is the US Census bureau.

How to read the graph: The graph below shows the association between population density and the average weekly excess deaths per 100k since the start of the pandemic. In the chart, states like New Jersey, Rhode Island, Massachusetts, with relatively higher population densities, have higher average weekly excess mortality than more rural states like Arkansas and Wyoming. On the other hand, rural states like the Dakotas (SD & ND) and Mississippi have lower population densities but higher excess deaths.

*The District of Columbia was excluded from this chart as the city data doesn't compare to the state-level data. A more accurate comparison would be to other cities.

Some states with low population density have similar levels of excess deaths than urban states

Average weekly Excess Deaths vs. Population density(people/sq mile)

Source: The Economist & US Census Bureau, Visualization: D3